014: Richard Goatcher Shares His Insights On The Alberta Economy And The Canadian Mortgage Industry

014: Richard Goatcher Shares His Insights On The Alberta Economy And The Canadian Mortgage Industry

 
 
00:00 / 43:29
 
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Jason Scott talks with Richard Goatcher, an Economic Analyst at CHBA Alberta. 

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Introduction

Richard Goatcher is an Economic Analyst at CHBA Alberta, Director of Research at the Edmonton Housing Research Corp, and the principal owner of Goatcher Consulting. 

Jason and Richard talk about the status of the Alberta economy, how the recent mortgage changes will affect the real estate market, and what construction trends Edmonton will be looking.

Key Points & Questions

  • [spp-timestamp time=”0:42″] The Alberta economy is in a slow recovery that is still feeling the effect of the 2014 drop in oil prices.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”1:53″] Where do you see the economy going in the next 2 years?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”3:00″] A reversal in out-migration would have to happen for Alberta to see growth in the real estate market.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”4:00″] Do you think we will see development go back to the oil sands like it was pre-2014?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”7:00″] If you’re a buyer today, you have much more options than you would have back in 2006-2007.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”7:30″] Where do you see housing prices going over the next year in Edmonton?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”9:18″] Lower density building is starting to show improvement, but high density should be seeing a slowdown.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”11:20″]  Why do you think the government implemented a stress test for anyone making a down-payment of less than 25%?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”12:50″] We are seeing a lot more sales of single family dwellings under $400,000.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”14:35″] The rental market in Edmonton is very well supplied. This is keeping renters from looking at home ownership as a way to decrease their costs.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”19:20″] Is there a crisis coming to the Canadian real estate market? Or is it the media and stock investors making it seem that way?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”20:43″]The bond markets in North America are what control mortgage rates, and they are sliding towards increasing.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”22:33″] What effects do you see coming from the mortgage changes to bulk and portfolio insurance?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”29:00″] Vancouver and Toronto have the biggest impact on national average housing price numbers.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”30:40″] Is there a bubble in Toronto?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”31:34″] Geography is a contributing factor to the housing supply problems in Vancouver (ocean and mountains), and Toronto (Lake Ontario).
  • [spp-timestamp time=”32:10″] Was there no way for the Federal government to take a regional approach to the mortgage changes?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”36:55″] Do you think there will be any new rules coming out?
  • [spp-timestamp time=”38:08″] 2017 is going to be a transition year for Edmonton.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”40:25″]If Alberta’s growth rates are going to return to the national average, it will mean the construction industry is going to go back to a more steady cycle.
  • [spp-timestamp time=”42:35″] New demand is coming from millennials that are now having families of their own.

 

 

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